How to read the budget watchdog’s numbers for the economy

Elvera Bartels

In addition to the debt and spending numbers, the OBR will also reveal its forecasts for progress and unemployment. Presented the unprecedented uncertainty, the OBR outlined three unique paths for the financial system in its Fiscal Sustainability Report in July: an upside, central and draw back scenario.

With a 2nd lockdown sending the recovery back into reverse and the Chancellor extending the furlough scheme into subsequent calendar year, the OBR is probably to revise these figures.

Back in July, its central scenario predicted that unemployment would peak at 12pc even though GDP would collapse twelve.4pc in 2020. That would be followed by a immediate recovery for the financial system, with progress hitting eight.7pc in 2021 and unemployment returning to 5.3pc by 2024. Nonetheless, in that outcome GDP was continue to 3pc decrease by 2025 than it was in its March forecast.

How does the Government’s expending overview influence you? What

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