First economic contraction in 4 decades: India’s GDP shrinks 23.9% in Q1, FY21

Elvera Bartels

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 23.nine for each cent in the April-June quarter of 2020-21 from that in the very same quarter last money yr, confirmed formal info released by the Countrywide Data Business (NSO) on Monday. This was largely on account of restricted economic activity in the country in the course of the quarter amid lockdowns to manage the distribute of the coronavirus pandemic.

This is the very first occasion of an economic contraction for the country in at minimum 4 many years, and also the very first GDP decrease given that India started publishing quarterly figures in 1996. In the January-March quarter of this yr, the economic climate had developed by 3.1 for each cent yr-on-yr — the cheapest charge in more than 17 several years — and by five.two for each cent in the June quarter of 2019-twenty. The charge of India’s GDP expansion had declined from 6.1 for each cent in FY19 to 4.two for each cent in FY20, the slowest in 11 several years.

Gross benefit included (GVA) for the country declined by 22.eight for each cent, manufacturing by 39.3 for each cent, and mining by 23.3 for each cent. Gross set funds development (GFCF) contracted fifty two.nine%, electricity 7 for each cent, and design things to do fifty.3 for each cent. Agriculture and allied things to do, in the meantime, had been a bright place, rising 3.4 for each cent in the course of the quarter.

India is not by itself in reporting dismal GDP figures. Even as China managed to buck the trend and, in truth, see an growth of 3.twenty for each cent in the course of the April-June quarter, the UK’s economic climate shrank 21.7 for each cent, Germany’s by 10.10 for each cent, and the US’ by nine.10 for each cent.

The formal figures had been broadly in line with estimates by a variety of organizations, all of which had forecast a decrease in GDP in the course of the quarter, nevertheless they had diverse in the extent of drop — from 15 for each cent to 35 for each cent.

Former chief statistician Pronab Sen had projected a GDP contraction of twenty five for each cent to 35 for each cent but cautioned that the NSO might occur up with a a lot reduced contraction (15-sixteen for each cent) due to the fact company info would be used as proxy for the casual sector.

ICRA Principal Economist Aditi Nayar, who had estimated a twenty five for each cent drop, had mentioned: “We caution that the divergence in the effectiveness of the formal and casual sectors might not get totally represented in the GDP info, given the lack of enough proxies for the latter.”

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg as of Friday had estimated a 19.two for each cent GDP decrease in the quarter. Bloomberg had quoted HSBC Holdings Plc Chief India Economist Pranjul Bhandari as stating: “The data place of work could announce GDP contraction of 17.five% yr-on-yr, which could subsequently be revised to a twenty five for each cent contraction when the casual sector study is obtainable.”


The lockdown and the gradual unlock in several states contributed to a sharp 40.7 for each cent yr-on-yr contraction in manufacturing volumes, according to ICRA’s Nayar.

India Ratings had projected a 17.03 for each cent drop. “Business disruption from March to Could has been so serious for creation, supply/trade, and things to do, specially in sectors like aviation, tourism, motels and hospitality, that FY21 GDP expansion is envisioned to deal for the very first time given that FY80,” mentioned India Ratings Chief Economist Devendra Pant.

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